Archive for the ‘Sports Arbitrage’ Category

A Starter’s Guide To Sports Arbitrage Betting

Thursday, June 25th, 2009

sports-arbitrage-world-traderzone-product_box

In this article I shall attempt to explain how you can become a successful sports arbitrage trader as efficiently as possible. I’ll assume that by now you have gone through the introduction to sports arbitrage trading and that you are aware of our TraderZone professional sports arbitrage software, bookmakers and e-wallets. It’s here that I will start to connect the dots for you.

First let’s consider the basic resources that you’ll need:

  • Computer – PC, Mac or Linux
  • Broadband Internet Connection
  • Phone
  • Trading Capital

Computer

These days you can use any modern computer. Entry-level hardware will be powerful enough for trading purposes and you are not tied to any particular Operating System as you will use your browser for all of your trading operations.

Broadband Internet Connection

This is essential. In general, the faster the better, but 1MB is good enough for trading effectively.

Phone

It  useful to have a phone available as some bookmakers operate telephone accounts which offer different limits to their online versions.

Trading Capital

Your trading capital is the major factor which will influence your level of profitability. You can start learning how to trade with as little as £500. This will be enough to allow you to practice and you’ll also be able to take advantage of the bookmaker bonuses to increase your capital. However, your progress will be slow and to take this opportunity seriously, you will need at least £2500. The table below provides a realistic assessment of what will be possible with different levels of trading capital.

Trading Capital £2500 – £5,000 | Likely Profits/Month £250

Since all of your bets should be low value at this stage, £5000 is enough to allow you to place funds with 30-40 bookmakers and get the ball rolling. Your profits will be very low but your goal here should be gaining experience. You are bound to make some mistakes so it’s better to lose small stakes which can easily be made up later on. You should be using your TraderZone trial at this stage -  being able to see when and where live arbs appear is a great shortcut to gaining the significant knowledge.

Trading Capital £10,000 – £15,000 | Likely Profits/Month £1,500

If you have other commitments and plan to trade for a couple of hours during the evenings and perhaps over the weekends, once you are confident in your processes, you are going to need to increase your capital in order to ensure that the time you spend generates a worthwhile extra income. Your stakes will be larger now and it’s going to be important to make sure that the periods during which you are trading are used as effectively as possible and a big part of this will be having funds on account so that you are able to execute your trades with minimum delay. The TraderZone will deliver live arbitrage information to your desktop when you need it and this will greatly enhance your trading productivity.

Trading Capital £25,000 – £30,000 | Likely Profits/Month £2,500 – £3,500

With this kind of money, you can set up as a full-time trader. As a ‘Full-time’ trader you won’t necessarily be trading 8 hours a day. The phrase refers more to the level of commitment and goals associated with your trading. At this level, you are almost certainly working from home and willing and able to trade 3 to 4 hours each day, and more during certain busy periods of the year. You should be using the TraderZone consistently and making it pay handsomely each month.

Trading Capital £35,000 – £150,000 | Likely Profits/Month £5,000 – £15,000

At this level, sports-arbitrage and other techniques such as Middles trading are your main occupations. 6-8 hours of trading each day – research and execution – will not be uncommon.

Once the initial setup has been established, you will need to open e-wallet accounts & register at some bookmakers.

E-wallet Accounts

E-wallet accounts are an important part of arbitrage trading, as they provide a fast and secure service enabling you to deposit & withdraw your funds to/from the bookmakers.

Two of the popular e-wallets are:

  • Moneybookers (www.moneybookers.com) – Moneybookers is currently considered the best e-wallet for sports betting arbitrage. It is accepted by the majority of online sportsbooks as a method of deposit and withdrawal, often free from fees. Moneybookers accepts membership from every country in the world, except countries listed by the OECD. Moneybookers accept every major currency, and most other common currencies.
  • Neteller (www.neteller.com) – Neteller is the close second contender for the best E-wallet for sports betting arbitrage. Neteller is accepted in approximately as many places as Moneybookers, perhaps even more, they accept 18 currencies but they have larger fees, and more limitations.

    The currencies offered by Neteller at this time are:
    AUD/BGN/CAD/DKK/EEK/EUR/GBP/HUF/INR
    JPY/LTL/LVL/MXN/NOK/PLN/RON/SEK/USD

It’s advisable to have accounts with both of these simply for the sake of flexibility.

There are other e-wallets, but only Moneybookers & Neteller are accepted by almost all bookmakers. You will have to open an account with any of these e-wallets and transfer your capital to the e-wallet account. Most of your trading capital will be managed in the e-wallet account.

After the capital is transferred to your e-wallet account, you’ll need to register at some bookmakers.

Bookmaker Accounts

An excellent site for choosing and researching your bookmakers is Bookmaker Reviews (www.bookmakerreviews.com)

Whilst the TraderZone is capable of scanning them all, you certainly don’t have to register with every bookmaker available to be successful with your sports arbitrage trading. In fact, early on in your career you will be better off limiting yourself to 30-40 accounts and adding to them gradually over time. Choose your initial account based on a combination of factors which include the bookmaker bonuses you are offered and the frequency with which they appear in arb trades

Paper Trading

The paper trading phase of your project should be brief. It’s an important but limited element of the learning curve. You don’t have to deposit any funds with the bookmakers to paper trade. The main purpose here is simply to get used to the layouts of the bookmaker sites and to practice finding the bets when they appear in an arb an the sports. The process is simple:

  • Whenever you choose an arb in the TraderZone, you’ll have time to study the arb completely, and understand how the calculator has allocated the stakes to each bet.
  • When you’re ready, press the button ‘Open Bookmakers’ and the sites involved in that trade will open in your browser. On each site, navigate to the correct page to access the relevant bet.
  • Once you’ve found the bets, confirm the odds are correct and that the arb does indeed exist.
  • If the trade is good, practice going as far as you can in the betting process with each site. Each bookmaker has a different method by which bets are placed, so it’s important to learn small details like which button to click and what to select to finalize a bet, especially if you have never used such sites before.

It is worth paper-trading at least 40-50 arbs before ending this phase of your training. Remember, a lesson learned at this stage may save you hundreds of pounds later on when you are trading for real.

Free Bets and Bonus Hunting

This is the first stage in which you will start using and making real money. Quite a lot of it.

Start making deposits at all of the bookmakers which offer you deposit bonuses. If your funds allow, deposit what you need to in order to gain the full bonus amounts. These will typically be in the range £20 – £200

In exchange for giving you a bonus, the bookmakers require that you bet with it and your initial deposit a number of times before you can withdraw any of it. Of course, most gamblers lose it all so the bookmaker ends up giving away nothing and keeping the initial deposit. However, traditional bonus sport arbitraging is a form of sports arbitrage trading where you hedge or back your bets as usual, but since you received the bonus, a small loss can be allowed on each wager (2-5 %), in order to facilitate the trade. This way the bookmaker’s wager requirements are met and you can withdraw the entire initial deposit and most of (90%) the sign up bonus.

The TraderZone offers an improvement over the traditional method of bonus scalping or trading. When you set up your accounts in its bonus-trading module, it will find for you all arbitrage and break-even trades that use those bookmakers, in any combination. This means that instead of incurring small, and up to now, acceptable losses, each of your trades will now capture at least 100% of the bonus, with a chance for a greater profit if the trade happens to be an arb. It also means that you can turn bonus-trading into a regular and systematic element of your portfolio, since bookmakers offer other bonuses throughout the year.

Trading With Small Stakes

Having made some significant profits with your bonus-trading, your next challenge is to go back into training-mode. This may prove psychologically difficult after enjoying the rush of making risk free profits from the bookmakers but it’s extremely important.

During this phase, you’ll actually be executing full arbitrage trades but you’ll be doing so with very small stakes. The point of this exercise is to get you accustomed to trading under pressure without exposing you to the financial and emotional damage that a large loss might wreak in the event that you make a trading error.

After executing 100 of these trades, you will be an experienced trader. FACT.

Impatient novice traders who skip this step often sustain losses which prevent them from becoming successful – don’t make this mistake yourself.

Managing Your Bankroll

Successful sports arbitrage traders accumulate profits by rapidly turning over their trading funds. The more frequent the turnover, the higher the overall profits. This is why efficient bankroll management is important.

You should aim for your bankroll to provide you with maximum liquidity. In practical terms, this means that the amount of funds on hold (i.e in no-man’s-land between your bookmaker and credit crd/bank account) should be kept as low as possible, ensuring funds are always available at the right bookmaker at the right time to place all of the good arbs.

A common mistake made by novice arb traders is to distribute all of their funds into their bookmaker accounts. This effectively locks up those funds and reduces the trader’s ability to add more funds to a bookmaker account that has been emptied as a result of trading.

The most effective way to manage the bankroll is to keep about 50% of your capital in your e-wallet account whilst depositing the balance among the bookmakers you wish to use. However, not all of your bookmakers should receive advanced funding as some of them will offer ‘Instant bet’ accounts which will debit your credit card at the instant that funds are required for a bet.

The ratio in which you distribute the rest of the funds
amongst your bookmakers may be influenced by
how often they have recently been appearing in arbs.

If you manage your bankroll as suggested, whenever you run out of funds in a particular bookmaker account, you can transfer funds from the e-wallet account. Depositing funds from an e-wallet account is free and instant with most bookmakers.

Using a Betting Exchange

Using a betting exchange is an integral part of any sports arbitrage betting strategy. The most popular and, therefore, most liquid betting exchanges are Betfair and BetDaq.

Traditionally sports arbitrage betting involves placing bets with different bookmakers to exploit the difference in odds to return a guaranteed profit. Exchanges allow the same thing but provide and should form part of every sports arbitrage trader’s arsenal. They can also be useful for damage limitation in cases where you need to hedge an exposure after missing a price with a bookmaker.

Conclusion

As a novice Sports Arbitrage Trader you face a steep learning-curve. However, the benefits are clear – as a legitimate opportunity to work at home independently and make significant and consistent profits, it is hard to beat.  As long as you invest time in your training at the early stages, you will find that the processes become second-nature to you within a couple of months. During those two months, you’ll have the ability to extract several thousand pounds of bonuses from the bookmakers so you will, effectively, be getting paid to train!

Boosting Profits With Middles & Sides

Thursday, January 1st, 2009
Sports Arbitrage Trading Techniques

Sports Arbitrage Advanced Trading Techniques

Middles (and Sides) are a particular type of low-risk trade which takes advantage of differences of opinion between bookmakers over handicaps and/or total scores

When A Middle is successful, both sides of the trade win resulting in a double-payout. When a Side is successful, one bet wins whilst the other has its stake returned.

In both cases, the wins can be significant compared to the low risks involved.

Although it is impossible to predict the future, a professional middles trader can probably expect to make an average of about 5% per trade over the course of a year. This compares with the average arbitrage profit of around 3%

Of course, your actual percentage return will depend on how actively you trade – a trader who places 1000 middles over the year will have significantly better success than a trader who places just 50 in the same period.

Middles & Sides are mainly in 2 types of market: runlines (handicap match-bets) and total points markets.

Example 1: Runline Middle

Team A

Team B

Bookmaker 1

H’Cap +9, Price 1.91

H’Cap -9, Price 1.91

Bookmaker 2

H’Cap +5, Price 1.91

H’Cap -5, Price 1.91

A 4-point Middle exists between Bookmaker 1′s +9 on Team A and Bookmaker 2′s -5 on Team B
A trader who bets a total of $500 ($250 on each team) on this Middle faces the following possible outcomes:

Outcome of the match

Result of the bets

Trader’s Profit/Loss

Middle/Side/Loss

Team A loses by
more than 9 points

Bet on Team B wins

$477.50-$500 =
LOSE $22.50

LOSS
- $22.50

Team A loses
by 5 points

Bet on Team A wins
Bet on Team B pushes

$477.50+$250-$500=
WIN $227.50

SIDE
+ $227.50

Team A loses
by exactly 9 points

Bet on Team B wins
Bet on Team A pushes

$477.50+$250-$500=
WIN $227.50

SIDE
+ $227.50

Team A loses
by 6 points

Bet on Team A wins
Bet on Team B wins

$477.50+$477.50-$500=
WIN $455

MIDDLE
+$455

Team A loses
by?7 points

Bet on Team A wins
Bet on Team B wins

$477.50+$477.50-$500=
WIN $455

MIDDLE
+$455

Team A loses
by?8 points

Bet on Team A wins
Bet on Team B wins

$477.50+$477.50-$500=
WIN $455

MIDDLE
+$455

Team A Wins

Bet on Team A wins

$477.50-$500 =
?LOSE $22.50

LOSS
- $22.50

Team A loses by 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 points

Bet on Team A wins

$477.50-$500 =
?LOSE $22.50

LOSS
- $22.50

There are 7 outcomes which will result in a loss of $22.50

There are 2 outcomes which will result in a win of $227.50

There are 3 outcomes which will result in a win of $455.00
A similar situation exists with Middles in the Totals markets:


Team A

Team B

Bookmaker 1

Under 25, Price 1.91

Over 25, Price 1.91

Bookmaker 2

Under 35, Price 1.91

Over 35, Price 1.91

A 10-point Middle exists between Bookmaker 1′s Over 25 and Bookmaker 2′s Under 35
A trader who bets a total of $500 ($250 on each) on this Middle faces the following possible outcomes:

Actual Points Total

Result of the bets

Trader’s Profit/Loss

Middle/Side/Loss

Under 25

Bet on
Under 35 wins

$477.50-$500 =
LOSE $22.50

LOSS
- $22.50

Exactly 25

Bet on
Under 35 wins
Bet on
Over 25 pushes

$477.50+$250-$500=
WIN $227.50

SIDE
+ $227.50

Exactly 35

Bet on
Over 25 wins
Bet on
Under 35 pushes

$477.50+$250-$500=
WIN $227.50

SIDE
+ $227.50

26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34

Bet on
Over 25 wins
Bet on
Under 35 wins

$477.50+$477.50-$500=
WIN $455

MIDDLE
+$455

Over 35

Bet on
Over 35 wins

$477.50-$500 =
LOSE $22.50

LOSS
- $22.50

There are 2 outcomes which will result in a loss of $22.50

There are 2 outcomes which will result in a win of $227.50

There are 9 outcomes which will result in a win of $455.00

Trap Numbers

Trap Numbers (sometimes referred to as key numbers) need to be taken into account when calculating the value of a middle.

These numbers arise due to nuances in a particular sport. For example, in NFL between 1982 to 2001 3 numbers stand out:

Just over 10% of matches priced at +7 finished at +7.
Just over 10% of matches priced at +3 finished at +3.
Well under 1% of matches finished on 0 (a tie).

In contrast, for other handicaps, the outcome of the match finished on the number of the time.

Ties in NFL are almost non-existent because there is usually a score in overtime. The scoring in NFL is 3 points for field goals, 5 for a touchdown and 2 for a conversion, which means that the scores usually increase by 3 or 7 each time.

Thus, 3 and 7 are Trap numbers in NFL.

Not for everyone

Trading Middles & Sides is not for everyone. With the opportunity for higher profits come risks. Although these risks are tightly controlled, if you are risk-averse then you will probably prefer to concentrate on sports arbitrage.

However, if trading middles & sides does interest you, then the automated service within the TraderZone may be just what you need. Using the same engine which locates sports arbitrage trades, our servers scan for middles & sides in the following sports:

MLB
NBA
NHL
NFL
Rugby
Soccer

The suite of Middles filters allows you to define with precision exactly what type of trades you will receive. You will be able to change your settings at any time in order to experiment with your trading.

To try it out, just log into the TraderZone and click for the Middles free trial.

Sports arbitrage vs Value betting

Saturday, December 20th, 2008

 

Inside Edge magazine: Sports arbitrage vs Value betting

Sports Arbitrage Trading For US-residents

Monday, December 1st, 2008

Sports arbitrage trading can be pursued from virtually anywhere since most of the bookmakers involved are on the web and can also be reached by phone. However, there are some issues which specifically affect participants in the US.

It is legal for US-residents to trade. However, it is questionable whether or not it is legal for sportsbooks to accept bets from US-residents and this makes it necessary for US-resident traders to make more preparations than others. There are indeed many US-resident traders enjoying considerable success with sports arbitrage.

Interestingly, in the US it is clear that all betting is fully taxable and the IRS expect betting profits to be included in full on tax returns. In this case, you should be sure to also include all of your betting-related losses and expenses in order to minimize the tax liability.

Up until recently, regulation of gambling in the United States was left exclusively to the State Legislatures, who determined the legality or otherwise of gambling activities within their jurisdiction. Some states legalized many forms of gambling, while others legislated to make it illegal to participate in any form of gambling other than the state’s lottery. Nevada is the obvious example of a State which has embraced gambling as a legal form of commerce, while Utah is a noted for its strong anti-gambling stance, and laws deeming all forms of gambling within its jurisdiction illegal.

US State gambling laws were all drafted long before the advent of the Internet, and they do not have provisions dealing specifically with online gambling.

US Federal Gambling Laws

So far, US Government attempts to pass legislation dealing specifically with online gambling have been unsuccessful. Separate Bills sponsored by Sen. Kyle and Rep. Goodlatte, each attempted to ban online gambling but failed to attract the required 2/3 majority Senate vote required to become law. Whilst it is likely that there will be more attempts to pass legislation dealing specifically with online gambling (either to to regulate or to ban), until such legislation is passed existing federal legislation serves as the only guide on this issue.

Federal laws relating to gambling were passed by Congress to deal with inconsistencies in State based gambling laws, especially as they applied to interstate commerce. Although passed recently, US federal laws applying gambling activities were all drafted before the advent of Internet gambling. There are a number of current federal laws that have indirect application to online gambling. These are discussed below.

1. The Wire Wager Act

The Wire Wager Act is the statute that may be applied most directly to restrict the use of the Internet as to gamble. It prohibits the use of a wire transmission facility to foster a gambling pursuit. It provides, in part:

“Whoever being engaged in the business of betting or wagering knowingly uses a wire communication facility for the transmission in interstate or foreign commerce of bets or wagers or information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers on any sporting event or contest, or for the transmission of a wire communication which entitles the recipient to receive money or credit as a result of bets or wagers, or for information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both”.

Exactly how this Act applies to Internet wagering is hotly debated. One school of thought in legal circles is that the Wire Act broadly covers any interstate use of the Internet that is related to placing or receiving bets. A second school of thought is that the Wire Wager Act cannot be applied to online gambling generally for two reasons. First, the words “wire communication facility” only apply to transmissions that use wires and the proliferation of wireless Internet access would therefore fall outside the scope of the Act. Second, reference to “bets or wagers on any sporting event or contest” implies the Act might only apply to wagering upon sporting events (not card games or other games based upon chance).
The above issues aside, it is clear that even if the Wire Wager Act can be applied to Internet gambling, it can only be applied to those “being engaged in the business of betting or wagering.” It cannot apply against the online gambler or Internet service providers.

2. The Travel Act, The Interstate Transportation of Wagering Paraphernalia Act, The Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, The Federal Aiding and Abetting Statute

The above 4 Statutes all contain provisions that could be construed to apply to internet gambling. However, as for the Wire Wager Act, the question of the validity of their application is hotly debated, and even if they could be adjudged to apply to Internet gambling, their application would be restricted to operators only, and not players or peripheries (ISP’s etc).

See also

Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act

Gambling Law US

As a result of the current situation, a number of credit card issuers in the US now refuse to authorise any transactions which look as though they may be with any type of gambling site. This can seriously hamper your ability to fund your accounts. You will also find that a most UK & Australian bookmakers will currently not accept business originating in the US.

Having made a decision to become involved with sports arbitrage, your task becomes one of taking measures to enable you to trade with all books without restriction. Most US-based traders spend some time setting up either UK or Canada-based forwarding addresses and then go on to establish bank accounts in the respective country. This enables them to trade with all sportsbooks without restriction.

The first step is to find a UK-based mail-forwarding address or a Canada-based mail-forwarding address

Sports Arbitrage & Tax On Profits

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008

One of the most often recurring questions that comes up when discussing sports arbitrage is about the tax status of the profits made by sports arbitrage traders.

There is no doubt that profits from betting & gaming are fully tax exempt in the UK. The reason for this is that a long established principle of UK tax law is that where a source of income is taxable, then relief is given for losses if you make them. As 95% of punters are losers the Treasury is naturally not keen on this idea.

In the 2001 Budget, the Chancellor went one step further and abolished all general betting duty for punters and replaced it with a 15% tax on bookmakers’ gross profits.

The situation for sports arbitrage traders may be different, however, where the Inland Revenue can establish that the trader’s “sole or main income” is derived from betting. In this special case, under the Income & Corporation Taxes Act, speculative profits are taxable under D Case I as trading income.

In order to protect yourself from any tax liability on your trading profits, no matter how large they become, all you need is to be able to demonstrate that betting is a hobby and not your sole or main source of income. If sports arbitrage was to become your main source of income (as it is for many professionals) then a simple, perfectly legal way to avoid paying taxes on the income would be to set up a tax “front” which enables you to say that your betting is a hobby.

Examples of such a front would be:

- a buy-to-let property which generates rental income
- part-time consulting work or a part-time job whose income you declare to the Inland Revenue
- details of any other activity from which you draw an income that you can declare on your tax-return

In any case, this type of issue is only likely to affect you if you are trading extensively and making sports arbitrage profits at the top-end of the scale (£80,000-£150,000 per annum). If your activity attracts the attention of the Inland Revenue, you should seek specialist personal tax advice from a qualified FCA who will be able to answer their questions effectively.

Sportsbook’s Vig Makes No Odds To Sports Arbitrage Traders

Monday, September 29th, 2008

I often see misunderstandings arise over bookmakers’ vigorish (vig), the profit or commission the layer makes on his book. You don’t have to look too hard around the web to find people claiming that sports arbitrage trades cannot exist once the Vig has been taken into account.

In fact, the vig is not relevant to sports arbitrage traders because it is built into the prices offered by the bookmakers. If those prices create an arb, the trader will place his bets. If the don’t, then he won’t.
Here is an example.

When a bookmaker sets his prices like this:

Team A: -110
Team B: -110

A customer has to risk £110 in order to win £100. 

The sportsbook’s vig, or profit-margin in this case is 10% – if he gets 2-way action on the match, with different customers betting on different teams, for every £110 he receives, he pays out only £100.

You see, the vig is not a separate fee – it is a margin that is built into the sportsbook’s prices

Let’s look at an example of a sports arbitrage trade, whilst keeping an eye on each bookmaker’s vig:

Sportsbook 1:

Team A: -110
Team B: -110

You can see that Sportsbook 1 has a vig of 10%

Sportsbook 2:

Team A: +150
Team B: -233

At these prices, Sportsbook 2 also has a vig of 10% but a very different opinion of the likely outcome of the match.

By taking the price of +150 on Team A from Sportsbook 2 and the price of -110 on Team B from Sportsbook 1:

Team A: +150
Team B: -110

We have an arbitrage of approximately 8% – that is, for every £100 invested and staked in the correct proportion, the guaranteed return is approximately £108, even while each bookmaker has his vig.


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