Middles (and Sides) are a particular type of low-risk trade which takes advantage of differences of opinion between bookmakers over handicaps and/or total scores

When A Middle is successful, both sides of the trade win resulting in a double-payout. When a Side is successful, one bet wins whilst the other has its stake returned.

In both cases, the wins can be significant compared to the low risks involved.

Although it is impossible to predict the future, a professional middles trader can probably expect to make an average of about 5% per trade over the course of a year. This compares with the average arbitrage profit of around 3%

Of course, your actual percentage return will depend on how actively you trade - a trader who places 1000 middles over the year will have significantly better success than a trader who places just 50 in the same period.

Middles & Sides are mainly in 2 types of market: runlines (handicap match-bets) and total points markets.

Example 1: Runline Middle

	Team A	Team B
Bookmaker 1	H’Cap +9, Price 1.91	H’Cap -9, Price 1.91
Bookmaker 2	H’Cap +5, Price 1.91	H’Cap -5, Price 1.91

A 4-point Middle exists between Bookmaker 1’s +9 on Team A and Bookmaker 2’s -5 on Team B
A trader who bets a total of $500 ($250 on each team) on this Middle faces the following possible outcomes:

Outcome of the match	Result of the bets	Trader’s Profit/Loss	Middle/Side/Loss
Team A loses by more than 9 points	Bet on Team B wins	$477.50-$500 = LOSE $22.50	LOSS - $22.50
Team A loses by 5 points	Bet on Team A wins Bet on Team B pushes	$477.50+$250-$500= WIN $227.50	SIDE + $227.50
Team A loses by exactly 9 points	Bet on Team B wins Bet on Team A pushes	$477.50+$250-$500= WIN $227.50	SIDE + $227.50
Team A loses by 6 points	Bet on Team A wins Bet on Team B wins	$477.50+$477.50-$500= WIN $455	MIDDLE +$455
Team A loses by?7 points	Bet on Team A wins Bet on Team B wins	$477.50+$477.50-$500= WIN $455	MIDDLE +$455
Team A loses by?8 points	Bet on Team A wins Bet on Team B wins	$477.50+$477.50-$500= WIN $455	MIDDLE +$455
Team A Wins	Bet on Team A wins	$477.50-$500 = ?LOSE $22.50	LOSS - $22.50
Team A loses by 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4 points	Bet on Team A wins	$477.50-$500 = ?LOSE $22.50	LOSS - $22.50

There are 7 outcomes which will result in a loss of $22.50

There are 2 outcomes which will result in a win of $227.50

There are 3 outcomes which will result in a win of $455.00
A similar situation exists with Middles in the Totals markets:

	Team A	Team B
Bookmaker 1	Under 25, Price 1.91	Over 25, Price 1.91
Bookmaker 2	Under 35, Price 1.91	Over 35, Price 1.91

A 10-point Middle exists between Bookmaker 1’s Over 25 and Bookmaker 2’s Under 35
A trader who bets a total of $500 ($250 on each) on this Middle faces the following possible outcomes:

Actual Points Total	Result of the bets	Trader’s Profit/Loss	Middle/Side/Loss
Under 25	Bet on Under 35 wins	$477.50-$500 = LOSE $22.50	LOSS - $22.50
Exactly 25	Bet on Under 35 wins Bet on Over 25 pushes	$477.50+$250-$500= WIN $227.50	SIDE + $227.50
Exactly 35	Bet on Over 25 wins Bet on Under 35 pushes	$477.50+$250-$500= WIN $227.50	SIDE + $227.50
26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34	Bet on Over 25 wins Bet on Under 35 wins	$477.50+$477.50-$500= WIN $455	MIDDLE +$455
Over 35	Bet on Over 35 wins	$477.50-$500 = LOSE $22.50	LOSS - $22.50

There are 2 outcomes which will result in a loss of $22.50

There are 2 outcomes which will result in a win of $227.50

There are 9 outcomes which will result in a win of $455.00

Trap Numbers

Trap Numbers (sometimes referred to as key numbers) need to be taken into account when calculating the value of a middle.

These numbers arise due to nuances in a particular sport. For example, in NFL between 1982 to 2001 3 numbers stand out:

Just over 10% of matches priced at +7 finished at +7.
Just over 10% of matches priced at +3 finished at +3.
Well under 1% of matches finished on 0 (a tie).

In contrast, for other handicaps, the outcome of the match finished on the number of the time.

Ties in NFL are almost non-existent because there is usually a score in overtime. The scoring in NFL is 3 points for field goals, 5 for a touchdown and 2 for a conversion, which means that the scores usually increase by 3 or 7 each time.

Thus, 3 and 7 are Trap numbers in NFL.

Not for everyone

Trading Middles & Sides is not for everyone. With the opportunity for higher profits come risks. Although these risks are tightly controlled, if you are risk-averse then you will probably prefer to concentrate on sports arbitrage.

However, if trading middles & sides does interest you, then the automated service within the TraderZone may be just what you need. Using the same engine which locates sports arbitrage trades, our servers scan for middles & sides in the following sports:

MLB
NBA
NHL
NFL
Rugby
Soccer

The suite of Middles filters allows you to define with precision exactly what type of trades you will receive. You will be able to change your settings at any time in order to experiment with your trading.

To try it out, just log into the TraderZone and click for the Middles free trial.

Tags: Software, Sports Arbitrage, Trading Techniques

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 1st, 2009 at 9:00 am and is filed under ArbAlarm, Sports Arbitrage. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.